Hope you’re having a productive week — here’s your latest market insights.

Nvidia and AMD may share 15% of their revenue from China AI chip sales with the US government to get export licenses, changing US-China trade. Bitcoin is nearing record highs above $120k, while Ethereum is above $4,300 thanks to institutional investments.

As Paxos eyes a national trust bank charter amid crypto-finance convergence, markets are watching for the Fed’s next moves. Will Bowman’s forecast hold amid changing signals?

In today’s financial recap:

Nvidia and AMD Pay for China AI Chip Access
Crypto Rally: Bitcoin and Ethereum Surge
Fed Governor Bowman Stays Course on Three 2025 Rate Cuts
Paxos Eyes US National Trust Bank Charter Amid Crypto-Finance Convergence

Nvidia and AMD Pay for China AI Chip Access

The TradeWatch: Nvidia and AMD will reportedly pay 15% of their revenue from China AI chip sales to the US government to secure export licenses, in a deal that highlights the evolving dynamics of US-China trade relations.

Unpacked:

Nvidia and AMD have reportedly agreed to share 15% of revenue from sales from AI chip sales to China with the U.S. government according to a FOXBusiness report, opening the door for resuming exports.
Experts say this type of financial concession as a condition for export approval is highly unusual and may blur the lines between national security policy and economic strategy, affecting technology valuations and supply chains.
Nvidia’s China revenue was approximately $17 billion in its last fiscal year (13% of total sales), while AMD reported $6.2 billion (24% of its total), meaning the U.S. government could potentially collect hundreds of millions per quarter if sales return to previous levels.

Bottom line:

This unprecedented revenue-sharing agreement underscores the increasing complexity of global trade, particularly in the semiconductor industry, where geopolitical factors significantly impact business operations. The agreement illustrates how governments are finding novel ways to ensure they benefit economically from technology sales.

Crypto Rally: Bitcoin and Ethereum Surge

The TradeWatch: Bitcoin approaches record highs above $120k, while Ethereum surpasses $4,300, driven by institutional investments, treasury accumulation, and regulatory progress like Trump’s executive order enabling crypto in 401(k) plans.

Unpacked:

Driving Bitcoin’s climb towards record highs is steady institutional inflows into corporate treasuries alongside US spot ETFs.
Arthur Hayes, CIO at Maelstrom Fund, joined the wave of whale buys, moving about $8.4 million in crypto, according to data on Arkham Intelligence.
A wallet identified by Lookonchain as belonging to a “mysterious institution” accumulated 221,166 ETH worth $946.6 million over the past week.

Bottom line: Crypto assets are seeing increased mainstream validation because of regulatory clarity, which promotes deeper institutional engagement. These trends signal additional growth and adoption as digital finance innovation gets broadly embraced by the financial system.

Fed Governor Bowman Stays Course on Three 2025 Rate Cuts

The TradeWatch: Despite recent economic data and a divided Fed, Governor Michelle Bowman maintains her projection of three interest rate cuts in 2025, citing signs of fragility in the labor market and inflation approaching target. This outlook shapes market expectations and strategies, especially for Treasury and equity markets.

Unpacked:

Bowman highlighted that the <ins>July jobs report</ins> was weaker than expected, with revisions showing 258,000 fewer jobs in May and June, reinforcing her view that a rate cut would proactively hedge against further economic weakening.
Concerns are emerging that U.S. inflation data is under increased scrutiny after political interference, potentially undermining confidence in the $2.1-trillion market for Treasury debt designed to protect against inflation, according to a Reuters report.
Bank of America strategists have lowered Treasury yield forecasts, anticipating that recent weak economic data will drive a shift in the Federal Reserve’s assessment of risks, and Bloomberg notes the appointment of Stephen Miran as a Fed governor could tilt the balance toward lower rates.

Bottom line: Bowman’s consistent outlook provides a crucial anchor point for investors navigating uncertain economic signals. Investors must closely monitor economic data and Fed communications to recalibrate their strategies as the central bank navigates a complex landscape.

Paxos Eyes US National Trust Bank Charter Amid Crypto-Finance Convergence

The TradeWatch: Paxos Trust Company, behind PayPal’s stablecoin, seeks a US national trust bank charter, joining digital asset firms expanding into traditional finance for managing assets and faster payments.

Unpacked:

Paxos seeks the charter from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which would allow it to manage assets and settle payments faster, but not take deposits or make loans.
Approval would convert Paxos’ NY charter to a federal one under the OCC, offering broader regulatory oversight; other firms, like stablecoin firm Circle (CRCL), and Ripple also applied last month.
Last month, President Trump signed a law creating a regulatory regime for stablecoins that could pave the way for the digital assets to become an everyday way to make payments and move money.

Bottom line: This application signifies crypto’s ongoing integration into mainstream finance and the evolution of digital asset regulation. Paxos obtaining the charter could set a precedent, inviting more traditional finance activity.

The Shortlist

Ace increased its position in MarineMax in Q2, betting on recurring revenue streams despite near-term market softness.
Ace updated the investment thesis on RCI Hospitality Holdings, citing their recurring revenue streams.
Analysts weighing in on AMD, providing insight on what rating to give the company in the medium term.