Welcome back to another edition of The Recap.
OpenAI’s landmark partnership with AMD—potentially worth tens of billions—has sent markets buzzing, as AMD is poised to supply vast AI infrastructure and gain a major new investor. This game-changing deal could propel AMD’s non-GAAP EPS and signal a reshuffling of the competitive landscape in AI hardware.
In today’s financial recap:
OpenAI’s $Multibillion AI Chip Deal Boosts AMD
NYSE Owner ICE Invests $2B in Crypto Prediction Market Polymarket
Bitcoin ETFs Post Record Inflows as Crypto Hits New Highs
Gold Surges Past $4,000 Amid Safe-Haven Buying and Rate Cut Hopes
OpenAI’s $Multibillion AI Chip Deal Boosts AMD
The TradeWatch: Advanced Micro Devices saw its stock price surge after securing a multi-gigawatt deal with OpenAI to supply AI infrastructure chips, potentially worth tens of billions, also including an option for OpenAI to acquire a 10% stake in AMD.
Unpacked:
AMD’s agreement with OpenAI involves supplying 6 GW of AI infrastructure, commencing with the first gigawatt expected in the second half of 2026.
The partnership projects to generate tens of billions in revenue for AMD and is expected to significantly boost AMD’s non-GAAP earnings-per-share.
As part of the agreement, OpenAI receives a warrant to potentially acquire 160 million AMD shares, which vests upon achieving specific milestones, starting with the initial GW delivery.
Bottom line: This deal validates AMD’s strengthening position in the AI hardware arena while underscoring the escalating demand within the AI infrastructure domain. The significant investment and strategic alliance can reshape the competitive dynamics in the AI chip market and boost investor confidence in AMD’s growth trajectory.
NYSE Owner ICE Invests $2B in Crypto Prediction Market Polymarket
The TradeWatch: Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is investing up to $2 billion in Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market poised to bring decentralized finance closer to mainstream financial markets. The partnership will also expand tokenization initiatives and institutional distribution.
Unpacked:
The deal values Polymarket at approximately $8 billion pre-investment, a significant endorsement for the crypto-based prediction market.
ICE will become a global distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data, which provides customers with sentiment indicators on topics of market relevance.
Polymarket partnered with Elon Musk’s X to use the platform’s data to provide insights and recommendations for the predictions platform.
Bottom line: This investment signals traditional finance’s growing interest in decentralized platforms, and demonstrates the potential for prediction markets to enter the financial mainstream. It also gives Polymarket legitimacy and broader reach beyond retail investors.
Bitcoin ETFs Post Record Inflows as Crypto Hits New Highs
The TradeWatch: Bitcoin and crypto ETFs experienced record inflows, exceeding $1.2 billion in a single day and $5.95 billion globally this past week, pushing Bitcoin past $125,000 amidst growing institutional adoption.
Unpacked:
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs achieved their highest single-day inflow since July, amassing $1.19 billion, signaling renewed institutional confidence as Bitcoin approaches record highs.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) dominated inflows with $970 million, achieving a milestone by potentially becoming BlackRock’s highest revenue-generating ETF in under two years.
The surge in inflows aligns with “Uptober” trends, historically a strong month for crypto, as spot market demand drives gains, suggesting a potentially healthier crypto cycle that could propel altcoin season.
Bottom line: The substantial inflows into Bitcoin ETFs confirm growing institutional acceptance of digital assets and underscore Bitcoin’s strengthening position as an investable asset. This trend signals a maturation of the crypto market and portends continued bullish momentum throughout the remainder of the year.
Gold Surges Past $4,000 Amid Safe-Haven Buying and Rate Cut Hopes
The TradeWatch: Gold futures hit an all-time high above $4,000 as geopolitical tensions, a U.S. government shutdown, and growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts drive investors to precious metals and strong ETF inflows underscore institutional confidence.
Unpacked:
Gold prices soared to record highs, driven by factors like the U.S. government shutdown, political instability in France, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, signaling a flight to safety among investors.
The surge in gold prices reflects a broader trend of investors seeking hedges against a weakening dollar and long-term financial instability, with some viewing gold as a safer asset than the dollar, according to Citadel founder Ken Griffin.
A recent report from the World Gold Council indicated that global gold-backed exchange-traded funds saw their strongest quarterly inflows, jumping 23% led by North American funds, highlighting the rising interest in gold ETFs as an investment vehicle.
Bottom line: The surge in gold prices reflects growing unease about economic and political stability as investors seek safe-haven assets, demonstrating a shift in confidence away from traditional currencies. Investors should recognize how macroeconomic trends are impacting commodity markets and portfolio diversification strategies.
The Shortlist
Cheers,
— Michael & the TradeWatch.io editorial team
